Make Money Selling Ebooks Online

Sports betting futures wagers can be an entertaining and profitable investment, but there are a number of pitfalls. These are some things to avoid:

Don’t bet at the first place you look: In other words, shop around for the best price. This is essential to all aspects of sports betting, but especially important with futures wagers. You’ll find more disparity between prices from book to book on futures than any other betting proposition. From a theoretical standpoint, a little work can yield much better value. From a practical standpoint, that means a higher payout should you win. The reason for this is that individual sportsbooks’ aren’t as worried about what the other guys are doing as they are with most other bets. Once the futures “market” is set books move the lines almost exclusively on their own financial position. The market simply doesn’t respond as quickly to futures wagers as it does to individual game lines so it is essential to do the extra work to get the best price on your proposition.

Don’t try to pick the winner in a competitive marketplace: This may sound sort of counter intuitive since the general idea of betting on futures is to determine the actual winner but it’s really not. Like everything else, its essential to always be mindful of the value you’re getting. In a futures market with several legitimate contenders at the top the price offered is seldom high enough to properly compensate for the risk you’re assuming. Here’s an example: in a hypothetical NCAA hoops tournament Duke is +200 to win the national championship. They’ve certainly got a shot, but at a payback of only 2/1 its hard to justify a wager at this point with the potential for so many interceding events that can make a championship more problematic. Such events as injuries, a tough tournament draw or even just going into a slump at the wrong time can happen to any team but when you bet a higher priced team–a ‘dark horse mid major at 15/1 for example–you’re getting “compensation” for assuming the “risks” of betting on a proposition with so many unknown variables.

In more theoretical terms, the ‘true odds’ of a Duke or similar top team winning the tournament are almost always higher than the price offered. Think of it this way–say we’re betting Duke to win the national title at 2/1. This means that the Blue Devils would have to win more than 33% of the time to break even. So lets say, for the sake of argument, that we could play the tournament over 100 times. Would Duke come out on top more than 33 of these times? If not, they represent a poor value. Let’s say that they win 30 of 100 times. This means that any price under +333 or thereabouts is a poor wagering value.

In a less competitive field, there can be instances where even a big favorite is a good value. For example, lets say a book was to take action on a bikini contest between a Victoria’s Secret supermodel and three members of the Pittsburgh Penguins. The model would essentially be a 100% probability to win the contest, meaning that even a high chalk price would be a good value. Risking a lot of money to win a little is a tough thing to justify, however, even if the math makes sense.

Don’t go for the big killing: Sports wagering is not a good arena in which to make a ‘big killing’. It may happen from time to time, but it is extremely rare. A perennial doormat can come out of nowhere to win a championship at a big price, but the fact that it happens from time to time doesn’t make it a good value. If you’re a recreational player and want to throw a few dollars at a big long shot, no real harm. If you aspire to any degree of seriousness as a sports better, however, you need to maintain your discipline and commitment to value at all times. If you want to hit a big jackpot play the lottery or the slot machines, but don’t try to do it in a sports betting paradigm.

Wagering value is just as important at the bottom of the barrel as it is at the top. Just because you’re getting a huge potential payback on a big dog doesn’t make it a good value. Make sure that the payback you’re getting presents an overlay situation–even on a huge underdog.

Don’t bet one sided props: Sometimes sports books will offer silly bets just to get publicity or in some cases just to be funny. While there may be life on other planets, the ‘true odds’ of a Martian being named to President Obama’s cabinet wouldn’t justify a +5000 line that it would occur.

Ross Everett is a respected freelance writer who covers travel, poker and sports handicapping. He is a consulting handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, falconry and deep sea diving. He lives in Las Vegas with four dogs and a pet coyote.